Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Anti-Corruption Push In China Leads to Casino Losses in Macau

From BBC News

Macau's casinos have recorded their worst monthly revenue performance on record as China continues its anti-corruption drive.
Total casino revenue fell by 23.2% in October from a year earlier, the worst result since the city started recording the data in 2005.
Macau's gaming authority said total revenue was 28bn Macau patacas ($3.5bn; £2.19bn) for the month.
The city is the world's largest gaming centre, ahead of Las Vegas in the US.
The special administrative region of China relies heavily on gambling tourism for its economic growth.
It particularly relies on gambling revenue generated by big-spending tourists.
Macau is the only place in China where casinos are allowed, but the communist government's anti-corruption drive has seen high-stake gamblers cut back on spending.
Recent pre-democracy rallies in Hong Kong may have also seen some Chinese mainland tourists put off from visiting Macau.
The city is a short ferry ride from Hong Kong, through which many mainlanders travel to get to Macau.

Army Will Cede Power in Burkina Faso

From Al Jazeera America

Burkina Faso's army will cede power to a transitional government and appoint a new head of state, said Lieutenant-Colonel Isaac Zida, the country's interim president.

"We are going to move very fast, but be careful not to commit a mistake that might damage our country," Zida said on Monday adding that a new head of state would be chosen following broad discussions with various groups.
Zida did not specify that the proposed leader would be a civilian and did not provide a timetable.
His announcement came in the wake of crisis meetings late on Sunday and Monday between Zida and opposition leaders after thousands gathered to denounce his appointment in the central Place de la Nation — the scene of violent protests last week during which the parliament was set alight.
Earlier on Monday the African Union's Peace and Security Council, gave the military two weeks to return the country to constitutional rule or face sanctions.
The army stepped into a power vacuum after Blaise Compaoré was forced to resign the presidency last week in the wake of violent demonstrations over an attempt to extend his 27-year-rule. But protests erupted again after Lt. Col. Isaac Zida assumed control of the interim government over the weekend, out of fears he might try to transition the country towards military rule.
"We ask the armed forces to transfer power to the civil authorities, and the council has determined a period of two weeks for the transfer," Simeon Oyono Esono, head of the AU's Peace and Security Council, said on Monday following a meeting in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.
"The African Union is convinced that the change has been against democracy. However, we know that popular pressure led to the resignation of the president,” Esono said. "Those circumstances were taken by the armed forces to get into power, but it originated from the people.”
In an emergency meeting with diplomats in the Burkina Faso capital Ouagadougou earlier on Monday, Zida reiterated that the military would cede power to a transitional government, without giving a timeframe for the changeover.
"Our understanding is that the executive powers will be led by a transitional body but within a constitutional framework that we will watch over carefully," Zida said. 
After Zida assumed the leadership role on Saturday, the military said it was acting in the interests of the nation and that "power does not interest us."
But the move promptly sparked angry protests among those concerned one autocratic ruler would simply be replaced by another. The army on Sunday launched a sharp crackdown when several thousand protesters gathered at a rally against the military takeover in the city's central square. One protester was killed.
Some protesters had headed to the national television station headquarters where two opposition leaders made separate attempts to go on air to declare themselves interim leader.
Former defense minister Kouame Lougue, whose name was chanted by thousands in the streets following Compaore's downfall, told the AFP news agency: "The people have nominated me. I came to answer their call."
But the TV technicians walked out, interrupting transmission and foiling another bid by Saran Sereme, a former member of the ruling party, to make her claim as leader.
As of Monday afternoon, the streets in the capital had calmed down, but citizens told Al Jazeera they wanted to see the transition happen as quickly as possible.
Zida on Monday also held meetings with French, American and European Union diplomats, all of who urged him to hand power back to civilian leaders.
Meanwhile, senior opposition figures met with their leader, Zephirin Diabre.
"The political opposition and civil society organizations insist that the victory of the popular uprising belongs to the people and therefore the transition government legitimately falls to them and should under no circumstances be confiscated by the military," Jean-Hubert Bazie, a spokesman for the opposition parties, told Al Jazeera.

Pakistani Couple Burned Alive For Torching Quran

Image: The site where a young Christian couple were burned alive in Pakistan's Punjab province.
A picture from the alleged site of the incident. Picture from NBC News.
From NBC News
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A Christian couple were allegedly burned alive in an industrial kiln in Pakistan on Tuesday after angry workers discovered they had set fire to several verses of the Quran, a local activist said. Shahbaz Maseeh, 26, and his wife Shama Bibi, 24, were attacked by colleagues at the brick factory where they worked in Punjab province, according to Mushtaq Gill, chief advocate at Pakistani minority rights group LEAD. He said they had planned to flee their town with their three young children.
"A mob of several dozen attacked the building where they were, " said Gill, whose organization’s full name is the Legal Evangelical Association Development. "They broke their legs so they couldn't run and then threw them in the fire. Only some bones and hair were found at the site." Punjab province is home to the majority of Pakistan's around four million Christians. Gill said that word got out over the weekend that several verses of the Quran were among items burnt by Bibi after they were left behind by her deceased father. Setting fire to the religious text is considered blasphemy in Pakistan. While technically punishable by death under strict Islamic law, it is more common for vigilante mobs to take matters into their own hands. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a police official told NBC News up to 35 people were believed to be involved in the attack and that arrests were under way.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

North Korea Implements Ebola Quarantine

By Eric Talmadge
From AP

PYONGYANG, North Korea (AP) — North Korea announced Thursday it will quarantine foreigners entering the country for 21 days over fears of the spread of the Ebola virus, even though no cases of the disease have been reported anywhere in Asia, and very few foreigners are allowed to enter.

North Korea is always on guard against outside influences, but now that it perceives the deadly disease to be a threat, its anxiety has reached a new level. It has banned tourists, put business groups on hold and is looking even more suspiciously than usual at every foreign face coming across its borders.
Case in point: when a high-level delegation from Japan arrived in Pyongyang this week, two of the first people they met were dressed in full hazmat gear.
The steps also send a message to the North Korean people to be very afraid of the outside world and of outside influences.
An announcement distributed Thursday to diplomatic missions in Pyongyang said that, regardless of country or region of origin, all foreigners will be quarantined under medical observation for 21 days.
Foreigners from affected areas will be quarantined at one set of locations, while those from unaffected areas will be sent to other locations, including hotels. The staff of diplomatic missions and international organizations will be allowed to stay in their residences.
Tourist visits to North Korea were halted last week, so few were likely to still be in the country.
Most tourists do not stay for 21 days. It was unclear if they or others already in North Korea on shorter stays, for example on business, would have to remain for the quarantine period.
North Korea's frantic response to the Ebola outbreak, including the broad but so far poorly defined ban on foreign tourism, is also surprising because it admits so few foreigners at all. Other than diplomatic and government missions, it has virtually no contact with any of the countries that have been most affected in west Africa, though Africa is one of the places it has tried to develop good relations.
Kim Yong Nam, the head of North Korea's parliament, is now touring the continent, though not Ebola-impacted areas.
The strict measures shed some light on how the bureaucracy in North Korea tends to work, and on the isolated country's often-fearful views of the outside world in general.
Last week, after rumors began to circulate among the small foreign community in Pyongyang that draconian measures were in the offing, North Korea's state media announced that travelers and cargo would be subject to stricter monitoring at airports, seaports and railway border crossings.
Daily reports are being broadcast on television news and during evening programming to increase public awareness of the disease and its symptoms. North Korea's Korean Central Television aired a news story on Sunday that showed quarantine officials strengthening inspections of people and boats moving in and out of the port city of Nampo.
"Our army, which protects our borders, has a high responsibility to block the disease," Han Yong Sik, director of the Nampo inspection center, told the network. "We are strengthening quarantine education and thoroughly inspecting boats and planes to ensure that not even a single person carrying the disease enters our country."
So far, there has been no official statement in North Korea's English-language media outlining the tourism ban or other restrictions on travel. There was, and remains, little information about what groups are affected, whether travel out of North Korea will be stopped and under what conditions the restrictions would be lifted.
That, of course, has left potential travelers scratching their heads — and businesses bleeding money.
"It was poorly communicated," said a post Monday on the website of the Choson Exchange, a Singapore-based organization that specializes in promoting business and educational exchange with North Korea. "This didn't allow stakeholders time to prepare for it. For Choson Exchange, we could be seeing potentially tens of thousands of dollars of losses as we delay training programs, and possibly even more as this drags on.
"For businesspeople, a shutdown will likely hurt their investment plans or transactions."
Uri Tours, a U.S.-based travel agency that specializes in tours to North Korea, already had informed potential customers that tours have been halted, and that anyone coming to North Korea from certain areas may be quarantined.
The new quarantine announcement — though slim on details — suggests a much broader response. A copy of the document, dated Wednesday and issued by North Korea's Non-Standing National Emergency Prevention Committee, was obtained by The Associated Press.
More than 13,700 people have been sickened in the Ebola outbreak, and nearly 5,000 of them have died. Nearly all the cases are in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, though there were 20 in Nigeria, four in the U.S. and one each in Mali, Senegal and Spain.
Uri Tours says it believes the ban on tourists is just temporary — and is holding out hope that they may be able to return in December.
North Korea's reaction isn't unprecedented. It closed its borders for several months in 2003 during the scare over SARS.
But that was a much more obvious threat. SARS affected China, and Beijing is where most flights into Pyongyang originate. In the case of Ebola, North Korea's efforts to defend itself from what appears to be a tiny risk may end up alienating it from foreigners who have been willing to invest here.
"Overall, this episode seems to reflect two things. First, a callous attitude toward stakeholders in the country's development stemming from poor communications or the lack of will to communicate," said the Choson Exchange blog. "Second, that North Korea's 'fear of the foreign' outweighs their interest in whatever benefits foreign investment brings."

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

New Acting Zambian President First White Leader in Africa In Years

From BBC News
Guy Scott pictured in August 2014
Zambian Acting President Guy Scott

Zambian Vice-President Guy Scott has been named acting leader following the death of President Michael Sata.
Presidential elections to choose a permanent successor will be held within 90 days, Defence Minister Edgar Lungu said.
Zambian President Michael Sata gestures upon arrival at Solwezi airport before addressing supporters at an election campaign meeting on 10 September 2014
Former Zambian President Michael Sata, recently died while in office.
Mr Scott, who is of Scottish descent, becomes Africa's first white head of state for many years.
Mr Sata died in the UK aged 77 after receiving treatment for an undisclosed illness.
He was being treated at London's King Edward VII hospital where he died on Tuesday night.
'Beloved comrade'
Mr Scott regularly stood in for the president at official events, but was never appointed acting president when Mr Sata was abroad - so this is his first time to officially lead the country.
line
Guy Scott
  • Often disparagingly referred to as the "ceremonial vice-president"
  • He was born in 1944 in what was then Northern Rhodesia after father emigrated from Glasgow to work as a doctor on the railways
  • A Cambridge-trained economist, he entered politics in 1990 joining the MMD which won the first multiparty elections the next year
  • As agricultural minister he oversaw the recovery from a devastating drought in 1992/93
  • He joined Michael Sata's Patriotic Front (PF) in 2001
  • Appointed vice-president in September 2011 after the PF's election victory
  • As his parents were not born in Zambia, a constitutional clause requiring the president to be a "third generation" Zambian may nullify any attempt to run for president
line
In a brief televised address Mr Scott confirmed his appointment.
"The period of national mourning will start today. We will miss our beloved president and comrade," Reuters news agency quotes him as saying.
The president's death comes just days after Zambia celebrated the 50th anniversary of independence from the UK.
Cabinet secretary Roland Msiska said on national TV that President Sata's wife and son were at his bedside.
He is the second Zambian leader to die in office after Levy Mwanawasa in 2008.
Earlier this month reports in Zambia said that President Sata had gone abroad for a medical check-up amid persistent speculation that he was seriously ill.
He had rarely been seen in public since returning from the UN General Assembly last month, where he failed to make a scheduled speech.
After he left the country, Defence Minister Edgar Lungu was named as acting president.
Mr Scott is of Scottish descent and his parents were not born in Zambia, so he may not be able to run for president in January because of a constitutional clause.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Catalonian Referendum Canceled .. For Now

From AFP
Picture from Wikipedia.
Catalonia's President Artur Mas vowed Tuesday to press ahead with a vote on independence for the region on November 9, but under a different legal framework after Spanish authorities challenged the plan in the courts.
Catalan leaders agreed Monday that the non-binding vote they had called in the wake of Scotland's independence referendum could not go ahead in its current form.
The announcement, which exposed cracks within the pro-independence movement, was hailed as "excellent news" by Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who is fiercely opposed to a ballot on Catalonia breaking away from Spain.
But on Tuesday Mas vowed Catalonia will "go ahead" with a vote on November 9 under a different legal framework, to get around a ruling by Spain's Constitutional Court which suspended an earlier electoral decree.
"We will call the people to vote on November 9," Mas said. "There will be polling stations open, there will be ballot boxes, there will be voting papers."
But he added: "We will have to do it in a different form from what we had planned."
Mas admitted that divisions had opened up in the pro-independence movement, but insisted "the real adversary is still the Spanish state," which is fighting to block the vote.
Mas accepted that his earlier electoral decree was no longer valid since it was suspended automatically when the Constitutional Court agreed to consider an appeal by the national government.
But he said an alternative form of vote could be held under "pre-existing legal frameworks" in Catalonia which allow for "citizen participation."
During a meeting of pro-referendum parties on Monday, the Catalan government "determined that the vote can't take place," Joan Herrera, a leader of the small leftist Initiative for Catalonia Greens party, told reporters.
That meeting appeared to have brought to a head a rift between Mas, a moderate conservative nationalist, and the left-wing parties with whom he has joined forces in the regional parliament.
Mas said the issue might have to be settled by regional elections and that a vote on November 9 could be just one step towards that.
"Since the consensus is now broken... that is the definitive means to hold a consultation vote," he said.
"Although the consensus has cracked, I know full well that the real adversary is the Spanish state, which is doing everything possible to prevent the Catalan people from taking part in this consultation."
Spain ready 'to talk' 
The Catalan sovereignty drive has raised a tense standoff between Catalonia and Madrid. Rajoy has fiercely opposed all moves towards a referendum on independence, vowing to defend the unity of Spain as it recovers from years of economic crisis.
But he indicated on Tuesday that he was ready for talks on the issue.
"I think what we have to do is talk. There are of course many of us who sincerely want that," he said.
Catalans have been fired up by last month's independence referendum in Scotland, even though voters there rejected a separation from Britain.
Proud of their distinct language and culture, and accounting for nearly a fifth of Spain's output, Catalonia's 7.5 million inhabitants — 16 percent of the Spanish population — have long been an engine for Spain's economy.
But many Catalans say they resent the redistribution of their taxes to other parts of Spain and believe the region would be better off on its own.
Spain's recent economic crisis has increased unemployment and hardship in the region and swelled its debts, but in 2012 Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy rejected Mas's request for greater powers for Catalonia to tax and spend.
Catalonia formally adopted the status of a "nation" in a 2006 charter that increased its autonomy, but the Constitutional Court overruled that nationhood claim, fueling pro-independence feeling.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

China, Now With World's Largest Economy


According to the IMF the People’s Republic of China has just surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy. This represents the first time the United States has been unseated as the world’s supreme economic power since it attained the position by surpassing the United Kingdom in the late 19th century. China’s economy has been growing at such an extraordinary rate over the last two decades that its supremacy as an economic world power was not only expected but was long ago foretold.

The significance of this crossover surpasses just China but speaks to Asia’s economic ascendancy as well.  Of the 6 largest economies in 1980 five were developed western states including four European nations (West Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy) and the United States. At number 2 Japan was the lone Asian entry on the list.

Fast forward 30 years and a major disparity between the past and present emerges.  Instead of the former European dominance the list now includes newcomers China, India and Russia in addition to holdovers Japan, Germany and the United States. Asian states now comprise half the list. As a Eurasian state Russia is usually considered to be European, however the majority of its landmass is located in Asia along with the vast oil and natural gas reserves which has propelled its economy since the fall of the Soviet Union. This leaves Germany as the lone European state, whose majority landmass is located on the continent, left.

But don’t start celebrating (or proclaiming Armageddon) just yet.

A nation’s economy is measured based on the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which attempts to ascertain the entire value of productivity produced by that state per annum. GDP can be measured in one of two ways, nominally or by a formula called Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

The calculations used by the IMF to determine China’s new found economic supremacy was based on Purchasing Power Parity. By comparison, under nominal standards the World Bank lists China’s economy at a size of $9.2 trillion dollars, still far behind the United States' at $16.8 trillion. Considering the signs of a slowing economy, and strong indications that the country is on the precipice of a construction crisis, it will be awhile before the People’s Republic surpasses the United States in economic size if at all.

Considering the large disparity between these two metrics an important question emerges as to which calculation is more definitive and generates the most accurate picture. In order to make such a determination it is important to define the two standards.

Nominal GDP calculations are pretty straightforward. They add the value of everything produced within the state with the aggregate being the final calculation. In essence it’s just addition. Unlike estimating the nominal value of a state’s GDP, PPP accounts for price variations among economies and adjusts the aggregate calculation accordingly.

PPP is better explained through the Big Mac example. In country A, an individual might be able to buy a Big Mac for $5, however in country B that same Big Mac will cost the equivalent of $7 (the prices listed here are not actual McDonalds prices but are arbitrary numbers picked to illustrate a point). Citizens in B therefore have a greater purchasing power than in A since their $5 can buy an entire Big Mac while the people of A can only purchase 5/7 of a Big Mac when they pay the same value in their country.

PPP takes the price disparity into account and develops a formula where the value of all the Big Macs produced in country B is equal to that in Country A. So if A produces 10 Big Macs and B produces 9 Big Macs the nominal domestic product of A would be $50 and B would be $63. However under a PPP formula the value of all the Big Macs in both countries A and B would be altered to reflect parity, for the sake of this argument we’ll say $6. Therefore the GDP by PPP standards for all Big Macs produced in country A would be $60 and $54 in country B.

While the previous example may be over simplified it illustrates the important distinctions between nominal GDP and GDP by PPP. The application of PPP to GDP has a disparate effect in that it usually raises the value of productivity in developing nations and decreases it in developed states. A sizable number of economists and political scientists prefer PPP over nominal GDP as a more balanced approach to determining the full value of each state’s economy.

By applying PPP over nominal calculations economists negate the factors that contribute to the price disparity found in different states. While many factors contribute, the high cost of labor in the developed world is the primary force.

Relatively high costs of living, standard minimum wages, and a unionized workforce prevalent throughout the country, all add to the cost of American labor. That cost is then added on to the production value and subsequently the price of the product. The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that the average monthly wage for an American in 2009 was $3,263. 

Comparatively, developing nations rely on a large cheap labor force to cut manufacturing costs making them attractive destinations for industry. According to the ILO Chinese workers average a monthly income of $656.

This is not to say that the labor and products produced in developed nations are necessarily better than the labor and the same products produced in developing countries. In some cases the opposite may hold true. However, the professionalization of the labor force add to the cost and raising the production value of the same product in the developed world.

Even agricultural items are subject to similar valuations. A cow in the United States may produce the same milk as a cow in China, the extraction of the milk from the cow, the packaging of the milk for market consumption, and the administration of regulations over the process  requires a human element which generates higher labor costs and increases the value of the foodstuff.

Commercial prices offered to the public to buy the product are made on the basis of the product's production value. The production value is ascertained by calculating the total cost of production including labor. The price then fluctuates based on supply, demand, and profitability of the producer. 

Thus the production value of a product and the product’s market price are intertwined. By creating price equilibrium PPP negates the effects of the production value. In essence PPP undermines the very purpose behind calculating GDP, which is to calculate the true value of a state’s economy. On the other hand nominal GDP produces a more accurate picture of the true value of a state’s economy.

China’s economy might have surpassed the United States’ on some convoluted metric which skews results in favor of developing states, but the real coronation is still a ways away. For now the United States retains its crown.