Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Norwegians Boycott Holocaust Event After Jews Are Invited

By Ludovica Iaccino
From The International Business Times
Anti-racism activists in Norway have refused to participate in a Holocaust commemoration after
members of the Jewish community were put on the guest list, a Norwegian blog has claimed.
According to Norway, Israel and the Jews, Norwegian activist organisation New SOS Racisme
-- which claims to reduce racism in society -- asked for the "Zionist Jews of Bergen" to be
banned from attending the Kristallnacht, or the night of broken glass, an event aimed at
remembering the escalation of the persecution of Jews in Germany, between the nights of 9th
 and 10th November 1938.
They "refused to participate in the Kristallnacht commemoration since a representative from
the Mosaic Congregation [a conservative Jewish Congregation ] was invited. Yes, they balked
at a Jew participating," the blog added.
The incident occurred a few days after Denmark's ceremony in Norrebro district marking
the Holocaust was used to raise money for Gaza, following the 2014 Israel-Gaza war which
killed thousands of Palestinian civilians.
A local leader of the Jewish community criticised Denmark's decision to raise funds for Gaza. 
"When the profits from the Norrebro event go to Gaza, whose government is at war with Israel,
 I think that there is an inappropriate confusion," Dan Rosenberg Asmussen, president of the
Jewish Community in Copenhagentold the Kristelig Dagblad newspaper.
"I do not know if this is a deliberate attempt to draw a parallel between the actions of Germans
 then and those of Israelis today – a parallel drawn before by people on the left and one which
 I strongly reject. If it's a coincidence, I think it is unfortunate."

Enemy, Thy Name is Turkey

Former Turkish Prime Minister and newly elected Turkish President Tayyip
Erdogan. Picture from Faz.net.
If the enemy of our enemy is our friend, then is the friend of our enemy our enemy as well? That inverted logical reasoning is the question that we must now ask ourselves given the current situation in Turkey.

As a secular Muslim majority state straddling the continents of Europe and Asia,Turkey would seem to be a natural adversary to the fundamentalist Islamic State or ISIS. 

“ISIS has nothing to do with Islam, but rather consists of militants who are drug addicts” were remarks made by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in reference to the Islamic State, a week after he lambasted Western nations at the United Nations for not doing enough to stop the surge of foreign recruits from swelling the Islamic State’s ranks. A bit of irony considering, as Syria’s foreign minister noted, that the vast majority of Islamic State (IS) recruits enter Syria via the land border his state shares with Turkey.

Turkish intransigence is  not just limited to its passé reaction towards foreign fighters crossing its borders to join the Islamic State.  When the Islamic State expanded its Syrian insurgency to neighboring Iraq an American- led coalition of Western and Arab states responded by launching air strikes against ISIS targets in the region. Noticeably absent from the coalition was Turkey. Even after IS brought its holy war to the Turkish-Syrian border, Turkey refused to engage the encroaching militants. Instead, the Turkish military targeted Kurdish forces: the one reliable Western- backed group which has continuously engaged Islamic State fighters on the ground. Furthermore, Turkey blocked Kurdish fighters from joining their brethren in defending the Syrian-Turkish border town of Kobane from IS and refused to allow the United States and other NATO allies access and use of key Turkish airbases, including the strategically important one in Incirlik, as bases of operation for the coalition to launch airstrikes against ISIS.  

So why would Turkey, a secular Muslim nation and member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), not only balk at joining the coalition against IS but also attack the Western backed forces fighting them?

Only two actors are actively engaging the Islamic State directly, the Syrian Government under Bashar al- Assad and Kurdish paramilitary forces known as the Peshmerga.  A third actor, the free Syrian army, have engaged IS. However, they have done so on a limited basis and are focused more on engaging the Syrian army in a few urban areas.  While coalition forces have engaged ISIS targets through aerial bombardment, the Syrian military and Peshmerga have been actively waging a ground campaign to physically dislodge IS from its positions in Syria and Iraq. 

Even though the Syrian Government and Peshmerga are the only forces actively fighting and resisting IS, they represent the two actors which the present government in Ankara view as the greatest threats to Turkey and Turkish interests.

Syria and Turkey have been historic adversaries since the partition of the Ottoman Empire following the conclusion of World War One. As a founding member of NATO, an ally of the United States, and the secular Muslim nation, Turkey has been viewed skeptically by its Arab neighbors who were more closely aligned with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Furthering the skepticism was Turkey's recognition and relatively good relations with the Jewish state which Syria had opposed militarily during the Israeli War of Independence, Six-Day War, and Yom Kippur War.

Syrian-Turkish relations have further been soured by Turkish development projects on the upper regions of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. The building of new hydroelectric dams limited the volume of water which flows from Turkey into Syria along both rivers, resulting in a decreased water supply in the normally arid eastern portion of the state.

Although relations between Syria and Turkey had warmed somewhat recently, the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War precipitated a re-cooling of relations with Turkey's former Prime Minister and recently elected President, Tayyip Erdogan, declaring that an absolute abdication of power by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was the only acceptable outcome to the current conflict.

While the United States and its allies oppose the Assad regime in Syria, it has refused to militarily engage the Syrian government due to Russian opposition. Furthermore, the West has been slow to support and supply the Syrian Free Army, another opposing force in the Syrian Civil War, due to the group's lack of cohesiveness and the continuing possibility that those supplies may wind up in the hands of radical Islamic groups. Western reluctance to support non-ISIS anti-Assad forces have left ISIS as the only actor willing and able to take on the Syrian government's forces.

Turkish opposition to the Kurds runs much deeper as the Turks view Kurdish nationalism as a threat to the territorial integrity of their country. A majority minority group in the southeastern section of Turkey, the Kurds have been fighting for their own state independent of Ankara and inclusive of areas with a significant population of Kurds in Iraq, Iran and Syria, for close to thirty years. The Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) has been at the forefront of the fight, waging a protracted unconventional war against Ankara until a ceasefire agreement in 2013. For its part Turkey has been adamant in both its opposition to the PKK, classifying it as a terrorist organization, and Kurdish independence.

For Erdogan and his party Western support for the Peshmerga and the Kurds as a whole could have the unintended consequence of solidifying Kurdish military power and autonomy while strengthening the Kurdish independence movement. Were the Kurds to prove successful in their campaign against IS in either Syria or Iraq, the result may be the creation of an autonomous Kurdish state from the territory within one or both of the aforementioned states. Considering that approximately half of the entire Kurdish population worldwide lives in Turkey, an independent Kurdistan that emerges from the ashes of Iraq and/or Syria will undoubtedly press for Turkish territorial concessions in the heavily Kurdish populated southeastern portion of the country.

With its military rise in eastern Syria and northern Iraq, areas where the Kurdish populations of those countries are mostly located, the Islamic State has come into direct confrontation with autonomous Kurdish forces. Since Turkey entered into a peace agreement with the PKK in 2012, ISIS is the only actor who engaging Kurdish groups in an active military campaign.

In fact, instead of targeting ISIS fighters or the Islamic State's infrastructure, Turkey has instead turned its weapons on the Kurds. Turkish fighters bombarded PKK positions in southeast Turkey, in violation of the peace agreement, and until recently prevented the Kurds in Turkey from crossing the border to assist the Kurdish forces battling ISIS forces in the Syrian border town of Kobane.

Erdogan's relatively soft position on ISIS is a continuing saga where under his leadership Turkish interests have diverged considerably from that of its traditional Western allies.

Of considerable note is the increasingly sour relationship between Turkey and Israel. Upon Israel's declaration of independence and statehood, Turkey was one of the first states to recognize the Jewish states, in addition to being one of only two Muslim majority states to do so (the other state being Iran which rescinded its recognition following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, subsequently the Muslim majority states of Egypt and Jordan have recognized Israel per separate peace agreements with the Jewish state in 1978 and 1994 respectively). Turkish-Israeli relations have plummeted to never before seen lows since the botched Israeli commando raid on a Turkish-led flotilla, trying to bring aid supplies to the Gaza Strip by beaching the Israeli blockade, left ten Turkish citizens dead. Since then, Erdogan has openly criticized the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, even as he maintains what the Kurds perceive to be a Turkish occupation of Kurdistan. He has also accused Israel of carrying out a genocide against the Palestinian people, an allegation which has been unequivocally refuted based on facts viewed in the most favorable light for the Palestinians by this blog, while continuing to deny Turkey's commission of the Armenian Genocide in 1915.

On the domestic front, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has infused Islamist values and adopted Islamist influenced policies within a staunchly secular Turkish society. While France has moved to ban the niqab (a cloth or veil worn to cover the face of Muslim women) in a bid to create a more secular society, the AKP has lifted a ban on hijabs (Muslim headscarf) in institutions of higher education.

This perceived attack on Turkish secularism, which had been a strict hallmark of the nation since its foundation at the end of World War 1, launched the massive pro-secular Republic Protests in 2007 and became a focal point of the recent 2013-2014 Protests.

In the end Turkey is not the same secular Muslim nation which the United States and West had relied on during the Cold War. Under Erdogan and the AKP, internally, Turkey is moving towards a society which looks less like Europe and more like the Middle East.  All this continues to beg the question is the friend of our enemy still our friend?

Friday, November 7, 2014

Top American General Says Israel Limited Civilian Casualties

By Lazar Berman
The Times of Israel

Israel went to “extraordinary lengths” to prevent civilian casualties during this summer’s conflict in the Gaza Strip, the top US military leader said Thursday.
“I actually do think that Israel went to extraordinary lengths to limit collateral damage and civilian casualties,” said General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during a forum at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in New York City.
“In this kind of conflict, where you are held to a standard that your enemy is not held to, you’re going to be criticized for civilian casualties,” he added, according to Reuters.
The Hamas tunnels “caused the IDF some significant challenges,” Dempsey said. “But they did some extraordinary things to try to limit civilian casualties, to include… making it known that they were going to destroy a particular structure.”
Dempsey listed Israel Defense Forces measures such as the “roof-knocking” and the dropping of warning leaflets as part of their attempts to protect civilian lives.
“The IDF is not interested in creating civilian casualties. They’re interested in stopping the shooting of rockets and missiles out of the Gaza Strip and into Israel,” Dempsey argued.

The American general recounted that an American delegation visited Israel three months

ago to learn lessons from the conflict, “to include the measures they took to prevent civilian 

casualties and what they did with tunneling.”
Dempsey’s statements stand in stark contrast to a recent Amnesty International report accusing Israel of displaying “callous indifference” in attacks on family homes in the densely populated coastal area.
The Gaza war left more than 2,100 Palestinians dead, including many civilians, according to Hamas and UN officials. Israel says the number of militants killed was much higher than the figures released by Hamas, and accuses the organization of using civilians as human shields.
On the Israeli side, 66 soldiers and six civilians were killed.
During the 50 days of fighting, Hamas fired thousands of rockets and mortars at Israeli towns and cities, including Tel Aviv, and used a sophisticated tunnel network to carry out attacks on Israeli military encampments in southern Israel, close to the Gaza border. Some of the tunnels also had exits abutting Israeli civilian communities, giving Hamas the ability to attack them as well.
For its part, Israeli forces carried out sustained aerial, artillery and infantry attacks on Gaza.
Dempsey also said during the talk that airstrikes on Iran would set back, but not destroy, its nuclear capabilities, as a deadline is looming for a deal between Tehran and major powers.
Israel in the past has raised the threat of military action to prevent Iran from getting the bomb, while Washington has left its options open.
“We do have the capability — were we asked to use it — to address an Iranian nuclear capability,” said Dempsey.
“But… as we look at using the military instrument if necessary to address the Iranian nuclear issue, that would delay it, it will not eliminate it,” he told the forum.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Anti-Corruption Push In China Leads to Casino Losses in Macau

From BBC News

Macau's casinos have recorded their worst monthly revenue performance on record as China continues its anti-corruption drive.
Total casino revenue fell by 23.2% in October from a year earlier, the worst result since the city started recording the data in 2005.
Macau's gaming authority said total revenue was 28bn Macau patacas ($3.5bn; £2.19bn) for the month.
The city is the world's largest gaming centre, ahead of Las Vegas in the US.
The special administrative region of China relies heavily on gambling tourism for its economic growth.
It particularly relies on gambling revenue generated by big-spending tourists.
Macau is the only place in China where casinos are allowed, but the communist government's anti-corruption drive has seen high-stake gamblers cut back on spending.
Recent pre-democracy rallies in Hong Kong may have also seen some Chinese mainland tourists put off from visiting Macau.
The city is a short ferry ride from Hong Kong, through which many mainlanders travel to get to Macau.

Army Will Cede Power in Burkina Faso

From Al Jazeera America

Burkina Faso's army will cede power to a transitional government and appoint a new head of state, said Lieutenant-Colonel Isaac Zida, the country's interim president.

"We are going to move very fast, but be careful not to commit a mistake that might damage our country," Zida said on Monday adding that a new head of state would be chosen following broad discussions with various groups.
Zida did not specify that the proposed leader would be a civilian and did not provide a timetable.
His announcement came in the wake of crisis meetings late on Sunday and Monday between Zida and opposition leaders after thousands gathered to denounce his appointment in the central Place de la Nation — the scene of violent protests last week during which the parliament was set alight.
Earlier on Monday the African Union's Peace and Security Council, gave the military two weeks to return the country to constitutional rule or face sanctions.
The army stepped into a power vacuum after Blaise Compaoré was forced to resign the presidency last week in the wake of violent demonstrations over an attempt to extend his 27-year-rule. But protests erupted again after Lt. Col. Isaac Zida assumed control of the interim government over the weekend, out of fears he might try to transition the country towards military rule.
"We ask the armed forces to transfer power to the civil authorities, and the council has determined a period of two weeks for the transfer," Simeon Oyono Esono, head of the AU's Peace and Security Council, said on Monday following a meeting in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.
"The African Union is convinced that the change has been against democracy. However, we know that popular pressure led to the resignation of the president,” Esono said. "Those circumstances were taken by the armed forces to get into power, but it originated from the people.”
In an emergency meeting with diplomats in the Burkina Faso capital Ouagadougou earlier on Monday, Zida reiterated that the military would cede power to a transitional government, without giving a timeframe for the changeover.
"Our understanding is that the executive powers will be led by a transitional body but within a constitutional framework that we will watch over carefully," Zida said. 
After Zida assumed the leadership role on Saturday, the military said it was acting in the interests of the nation and that "power does not interest us."
But the move promptly sparked angry protests among those concerned one autocratic ruler would simply be replaced by another. The army on Sunday launched a sharp crackdown when several thousand protesters gathered at a rally against the military takeover in the city's central square. One protester was killed.
Some protesters had headed to the national television station headquarters where two opposition leaders made separate attempts to go on air to declare themselves interim leader.
Former defense minister Kouame Lougue, whose name was chanted by thousands in the streets following Compaore's downfall, told the AFP news agency: "The people have nominated me. I came to answer their call."
But the TV technicians walked out, interrupting transmission and foiling another bid by Saran Sereme, a former member of the ruling party, to make her claim as leader.
As of Monday afternoon, the streets in the capital had calmed down, but citizens told Al Jazeera they wanted to see the transition happen as quickly as possible.
Zida on Monday also held meetings with French, American and European Union diplomats, all of who urged him to hand power back to civilian leaders.
Meanwhile, senior opposition figures met with their leader, Zephirin Diabre.
"The political opposition and civil society organizations insist that the victory of the popular uprising belongs to the people and therefore the transition government legitimately falls to them and should under no circumstances be confiscated by the military," Jean-Hubert Bazie, a spokesman for the opposition parties, told Al Jazeera.

Pakistani Couple Burned Alive For Torching Quran

Image: The site where a young Christian couple were burned alive in Pakistan's Punjab province.
A picture from the alleged site of the incident. Picture from NBC News.
From NBC News
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A Christian couple were allegedly burned alive in an industrial kiln in Pakistan on Tuesday after angry workers discovered they had set fire to several verses of the Quran, a local activist said. Shahbaz Maseeh, 26, and his wife Shama Bibi, 24, were attacked by colleagues at the brick factory where they worked in Punjab province, according to Mushtaq Gill, chief advocate at Pakistani minority rights group LEAD. He said they had planned to flee their town with their three young children.
"A mob of several dozen attacked the building where they were, " said Gill, whose organization’s full name is the Legal Evangelical Association Development. "They broke their legs so they couldn't run and then threw them in the fire. Only some bones and hair were found at the site." Punjab province is home to the majority of Pakistan's around four million Christians. Gill said that word got out over the weekend that several verses of the Quran were among items burnt by Bibi after they were left behind by her deceased father. Setting fire to the religious text is considered blasphemy in Pakistan. While technically punishable by death under strict Islamic law, it is more common for vigilante mobs to take matters into their own hands. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a police official told NBC News up to 35 people were believed to be involved in the attack and that arrests were under way.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

North Korea Implements Ebola Quarantine

By Eric Talmadge
From AP

PYONGYANG, North Korea (AP) — North Korea announced Thursday it will quarantine foreigners entering the country for 21 days over fears of the spread of the Ebola virus, even though no cases of the disease have been reported anywhere in Asia, and very few foreigners are allowed to enter.

North Korea is always on guard against outside influences, but now that it perceives the deadly disease to be a threat, its anxiety has reached a new level. It has banned tourists, put business groups on hold and is looking even more suspiciously than usual at every foreign face coming across its borders.
Case in point: when a high-level delegation from Japan arrived in Pyongyang this week, two of the first people they met were dressed in full hazmat gear.
The steps also send a message to the North Korean people to be very afraid of the outside world and of outside influences.
An announcement distributed Thursday to diplomatic missions in Pyongyang said that, regardless of country or region of origin, all foreigners will be quarantined under medical observation for 21 days.
Foreigners from affected areas will be quarantined at one set of locations, while those from unaffected areas will be sent to other locations, including hotels. The staff of diplomatic missions and international organizations will be allowed to stay in their residences.
Tourist visits to North Korea were halted last week, so few were likely to still be in the country.
Most tourists do not stay for 21 days. It was unclear if they or others already in North Korea on shorter stays, for example on business, would have to remain for the quarantine period.
North Korea's frantic response to the Ebola outbreak, including the broad but so far poorly defined ban on foreign tourism, is also surprising because it admits so few foreigners at all. Other than diplomatic and government missions, it has virtually no contact with any of the countries that have been most affected in west Africa, though Africa is one of the places it has tried to develop good relations.
Kim Yong Nam, the head of North Korea's parliament, is now touring the continent, though not Ebola-impacted areas.
The strict measures shed some light on how the bureaucracy in North Korea tends to work, and on the isolated country's often-fearful views of the outside world in general.
Last week, after rumors began to circulate among the small foreign community in Pyongyang that draconian measures were in the offing, North Korea's state media announced that travelers and cargo would be subject to stricter monitoring at airports, seaports and railway border crossings.
Daily reports are being broadcast on television news and during evening programming to increase public awareness of the disease and its symptoms. North Korea's Korean Central Television aired a news story on Sunday that showed quarantine officials strengthening inspections of people and boats moving in and out of the port city of Nampo.
"Our army, which protects our borders, has a high responsibility to block the disease," Han Yong Sik, director of the Nampo inspection center, told the network. "We are strengthening quarantine education and thoroughly inspecting boats and planes to ensure that not even a single person carrying the disease enters our country."
So far, there has been no official statement in North Korea's English-language media outlining the tourism ban or other restrictions on travel. There was, and remains, little information about what groups are affected, whether travel out of North Korea will be stopped and under what conditions the restrictions would be lifted.
That, of course, has left potential travelers scratching their heads — and businesses bleeding money.
"It was poorly communicated," said a post Monday on the website of the Choson Exchange, a Singapore-based organization that specializes in promoting business and educational exchange with North Korea. "This didn't allow stakeholders time to prepare for it. For Choson Exchange, we could be seeing potentially tens of thousands of dollars of losses as we delay training programs, and possibly even more as this drags on.
"For businesspeople, a shutdown will likely hurt their investment plans or transactions."
Uri Tours, a U.S.-based travel agency that specializes in tours to North Korea, already had informed potential customers that tours have been halted, and that anyone coming to North Korea from certain areas may be quarantined.
The new quarantine announcement — though slim on details — suggests a much broader response. A copy of the document, dated Wednesday and issued by North Korea's Non-Standing National Emergency Prevention Committee, was obtained by The Associated Press.
More than 13,700 people have been sickened in the Ebola outbreak, and nearly 5,000 of them have died. Nearly all the cases are in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, though there were 20 in Nigeria, four in the U.S. and one each in Mali, Senegal and Spain.
Uri Tours says it believes the ban on tourists is just temporary — and is holding out hope that they may be able to return in December.
North Korea's reaction isn't unprecedented. It closed its borders for several months in 2003 during the scare over SARS.
But that was a much more obvious threat. SARS affected China, and Beijing is where most flights into Pyongyang originate. In the case of Ebola, North Korea's efforts to defend itself from what appears to be a tiny risk may end up alienating it from foreigners who have been willing to invest here.
"Overall, this episode seems to reflect two things. First, a callous attitude toward stakeholders in the country's development stemming from poor communications or the lack of will to communicate," said the Choson Exchange blog. "Second, that North Korea's 'fear of the foreign' outweighs their interest in whatever benefits foreign investment brings."

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

New Acting Zambian President First White Leader in Africa In Years

From BBC News
Guy Scott pictured in August 2014
Zambian Acting President Guy Scott

Zambian Vice-President Guy Scott has been named acting leader following the death of President Michael Sata.
Presidential elections to choose a permanent successor will be held within 90 days, Defence Minister Edgar Lungu said.
Zambian President Michael Sata gestures upon arrival at Solwezi airport before addressing supporters at an election campaign meeting on 10 September 2014
Former Zambian President Michael Sata, recently died while in office.
Mr Scott, who is of Scottish descent, becomes Africa's first white head of state for many years.
Mr Sata died in the UK aged 77 after receiving treatment for an undisclosed illness.
He was being treated at London's King Edward VII hospital where he died on Tuesday night.
'Beloved comrade'
Mr Scott regularly stood in for the president at official events, but was never appointed acting president when Mr Sata was abroad - so this is his first time to officially lead the country.
line
Guy Scott
  • Often disparagingly referred to as the "ceremonial vice-president"
  • He was born in 1944 in what was then Northern Rhodesia after father emigrated from Glasgow to work as a doctor on the railways
  • A Cambridge-trained economist, he entered politics in 1990 joining the MMD which won the first multiparty elections the next year
  • As agricultural minister he oversaw the recovery from a devastating drought in 1992/93
  • He joined Michael Sata's Patriotic Front (PF) in 2001
  • Appointed vice-president in September 2011 after the PF's election victory
  • As his parents were not born in Zambia, a constitutional clause requiring the president to be a "third generation" Zambian may nullify any attempt to run for president
line
In a brief televised address Mr Scott confirmed his appointment.
"The period of national mourning will start today. We will miss our beloved president and comrade," Reuters news agency quotes him as saying.
The president's death comes just days after Zambia celebrated the 50th anniversary of independence from the UK.
Cabinet secretary Roland Msiska said on national TV that President Sata's wife and son were at his bedside.
He is the second Zambian leader to die in office after Levy Mwanawasa in 2008.
Earlier this month reports in Zambia said that President Sata had gone abroad for a medical check-up amid persistent speculation that he was seriously ill.
He had rarely been seen in public since returning from the UN General Assembly last month, where he failed to make a scheduled speech.
After he left the country, Defence Minister Edgar Lungu was named as acting president.
Mr Scott is of Scottish descent and his parents were not born in Zambia, so he may not be able to run for president in January because of a constitutional clause.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Catalonian Referendum Canceled .. For Now

From AFP
Picture from Wikipedia.
Catalonia's President Artur Mas vowed Tuesday to press ahead with a vote on independence for the region on November 9, but under a different legal framework after Spanish authorities challenged the plan in the courts.
Catalan leaders agreed Monday that the non-binding vote they had called in the wake of Scotland's independence referendum could not go ahead in its current form.
The announcement, which exposed cracks within the pro-independence movement, was hailed as "excellent news" by Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who is fiercely opposed to a ballot on Catalonia breaking away from Spain.
But on Tuesday Mas vowed Catalonia will "go ahead" with a vote on November 9 under a different legal framework, to get around a ruling by Spain's Constitutional Court which suspended an earlier electoral decree.
"We will call the people to vote on November 9," Mas said. "There will be polling stations open, there will be ballot boxes, there will be voting papers."
But he added: "We will have to do it in a different form from what we had planned."
Mas admitted that divisions had opened up in the pro-independence movement, but insisted "the real adversary is still the Spanish state," which is fighting to block the vote.
Mas accepted that his earlier electoral decree was no longer valid since it was suspended automatically when the Constitutional Court agreed to consider an appeal by the national government.
But he said an alternative form of vote could be held under "pre-existing legal frameworks" in Catalonia which allow for "citizen participation."
During a meeting of pro-referendum parties on Monday, the Catalan government "determined that the vote can't take place," Joan Herrera, a leader of the small leftist Initiative for Catalonia Greens party, told reporters.
That meeting appeared to have brought to a head a rift between Mas, a moderate conservative nationalist, and the left-wing parties with whom he has joined forces in the regional parliament.
Mas said the issue might have to be settled by regional elections and that a vote on November 9 could be just one step towards that.
"Since the consensus is now broken... that is the definitive means to hold a consultation vote," he said.
"Although the consensus has cracked, I know full well that the real adversary is the Spanish state, which is doing everything possible to prevent the Catalan people from taking part in this consultation."
Spain ready 'to talk' 
The Catalan sovereignty drive has raised a tense standoff between Catalonia and Madrid. Rajoy has fiercely opposed all moves towards a referendum on independence, vowing to defend the unity of Spain as it recovers from years of economic crisis.
But he indicated on Tuesday that he was ready for talks on the issue.
"I think what we have to do is talk. There are of course many of us who sincerely want that," he said.
Catalans have been fired up by last month's independence referendum in Scotland, even though voters there rejected a separation from Britain.
Proud of their distinct language and culture, and accounting for nearly a fifth of Spain's output, Catalonia's 7.5 million inhabitants — 16 percent of the Spanish population — have long been an engine for Spain's economy.
But many Catalans say they resent the redistribution of their taxes to other parts of Spain and believe the region would be better off on its own.
Spain's recent economic crisis has increased unemployment and hardship in the region and swelled its debts, but in 2012 Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy rejected Mas's request for greater powers for Catalonia to tax and spend.
Catalonia formally adopted the status of a "nation" in a 2006 charter that increased its autonomy, but the Constitutional Court overruled that nationhood claim, fueling pro-independence feeling.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

China, Now With World's Largest Economy


According to the IMF the People’s Republic of China has just surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy. This represents the first time the United States has been unseated as the world’s supreme economic power since it attained the position by surpassing the United Kingdom in the late 19th century. China’s economy has been growing at such an extraordinary rate over the last two decades that its supremacy as an economic world power was not only expected but was long ago foretold.

The significance of this crossover surpasses just China but speaks to Asia’s economic ascendancy as well.  Of the 6 largest economies in 1980 five were developed western states including four European nations (West Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy) and the United States. At number 2 Japan was the lone Asian entry on the list.

Fast forward 30 years and a major disparity between the past and present emerges.  Instead of the former European dominance the list now includes newcomers China, India and Russia in addition to holdovers Japan, Germany and the United States. Asian states now comprise half the list. As a Eurasian state Russia is usually considered to be European, however the majority of its landmass is located in Asia along with the vast oil and natural gas reserves which has propelled its economy since the fall of the Soviet Union. This leaves Germany as the lone European state, whose majority landmass is located on the continent, left.

But don’t start celebrating (or proclaiming Armageddon) just yet.

A nation’s economy is measured based on the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which attempts to ascertain the entire value of productivity produced by that state per annum. GDP can be measured in one of two ways, nominally or by a formula called Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

The calculations used by the IMF to determine China’s new found economic supremacy was based on Purchasing Power Parity. By comparison, under nominal standards the World Bank lists China’s economy at a size of $9.2 trillion dollars, still far behind the United States' at $16.8 trillion. Considering the signs of a slowing economy, and strong indications that the country is on the precipice of a construction crisis, it will be awhile before the People’s Republic surpasses the United States in economic size if at all.

Considering the large disparity between these two metrics an important question emerges as to which calculation is more definitive and generates the most accurate picture. In order to make such a determination it is important to define the two standards.

Nominal GDP calculations are pretty straightforward. They add the value of everything produced within the state with the aggregate being the final calculation. In essence it’s just addition. Unlike estimating the nominal value of a state’s GDP, PPP accounts for price variations among economies and adjusts the aggregate calculation accordingly.

PPP is better explained through the Big Mac example. In country A, an individual might be able to buy a Big Mac for $5, however in country B that same Big Mac will cost the equivalent of $7 (the prices listed here are not actual McDonalds prices but are arbitrary numbers picked to illustrate a point). Citizens in B therefore have a greater purchasing power than in A since their $5 can buy an entire Big Mac while the people of A can only purchase 5/7 of a Big Mac when they pay the same value in their country.

PPP takes the price disparity into account and develops a formula where the value of all the Big Macs produced in country B is equal to that in Country A. So if A produces 10 Big Macs and B produces 9 Big Macs the nominal domestic product of A would be $50 and B would be $63. However under a PPP formula the value of all the Big Macs in both countries A and B would be altered to reflect parity, for the sake of this argument we’ll say $6. Therefore the GDP by PPP standards for all Big Macs produced in country A would be $60 and $54 in country B.

While the previous example may be over simplified it illustrates the important distinctions between nominal GDP and GDP by PPP. The application of PPP to GDP has a disparate effect in that it usually raises the value of productivity in developing nations and decreases it in developed states. A sizable number of economists and political scientists prefer PPP over nominal GDP as a more balanced approach to determining the full value of each state’s economy.

By applying PPP over nominal calculations economists negate the factors that contribute to the price disparity found in different states. While many factors contribute, the high cost of labor in the developed world is the primary force.

Relatively high costs of living, standard minimum wages, and a unionized workforce prevalent throughout the country, all add to the cost of American labor. That cost is then added on to the production value and subsequently the price of the product. The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that the average monthly wage for an American in 2009 was $3,263. 

Comparatively, developing nations rely on a large cheap labor force to cut manufacturing costs making them attractive destinations for industry. According to the ILO Chinese workers average a monthly income of $656.

This is not to say that the labor and products produced in developed nations are necessarily better than the labor and the same products produced in developing countries. In some cases the opposite may hold true. However, the professionalization of the labor force add to the cost and raising the production value of the same product in the developed world.

Even agricultural items are subject to similar valuations. A cow in the United States may produce the same milk as a cow in China, the extraction of the milk from the cow, the packaging of the milk for market consumption, and the administration of regulations over the process  requires a human element which generates higher labor costs and increases the value of the foodstuff.

Commercial prices offered to the public to buy the product are made on the basis of the product's production value. The production value is ascertained by calculating the total cost of production including labor. The price then fluctuates based on supply, demand, and profitability of the producer. 

Thus the production value of a product and the product’s market price are intertwined. By creating price equilibrium PPP negates the effects of the production value. In essence PPP undermines the very purpose behind calculating GDP, which is to calculate the true value of a state’s economy. On the other hand nominal GDP produces a more accurate picture of the true value of a state’s economy.

China’s economy might have surpassed the United States’ on some convoluted metric which skews results in favor of developing states, but the real coronation is still a ways away. For now the United States retains its crown.